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Interpreting risk against the WHO target

d-interpreting-risk.Rmd

ambre produces figures, but the real deliverable is a decision: is this reuse scenario safe enough? This vignette explains the benchmark, how the package gets from single exposure events to a yearly figure, and how to read the resulting distribution against the regulatory objective.

The objective

A reference is the World Health Organization (WHO) tolerable-risk target of

no more than 1e-6 DALY per person per year.

– one micro disability-adjusted life-year, i.e. roughly one healthy year of life lost per million exposed people per year. It underpins the WHO guidelines for wastewater reuse (2006, 2016), is the health basis behind EU Regulation 2020/741 on water reuse (with its reclaimed-water classes A-D), the French arrêté du 18 décembre 2023, and ISO 16075.

ambre’s DALY plot draws this target as a red line so you can read acceptability at a glance. And you can adjust this target to other regulation by changing the value of the parameter objective in plot_dalys function.

From an event to a year

A single splash of water is a tiny risk. What matters is the accumulated risk over a year of repeated exposures. get_risk_total() performs that aggregation. For each Monte-Carlo run it combines the per-event probabilities into annual ones with the standard independent-events formula

Pyear=1−∏events(1−pevent)P_\text{year} = 1 - \prod_\text{events} (1 - p_\text{event})

and sums the per-event DALYs. It writes a risk_total table with, per run:

  • infectionProb_sum – annual probability of infection, 1 - prod(1 - p);
  • illnessProb_sum – annual probability of illness (infection weighted by the chance it makes you ill);
  • dalys_sum – the annual DALY lost, the number you compare to 1e-6.

Why the result is a distribution

Here is the point most easily missed: one row of your scenario does not give one risk number, it gives a thousand of them. ambre repeats the whole calculation number_of_repeatings times (1000 by default), each time redrawing concentrations, volumes and log-reductions from their distributions. The index that separates these runs is repeatID. So dalys_sum is a sample of 1000 plausible annual burdens, capturing the dispersion in the inputs. You interpret its spread, not a single point. (For the machinery behind this, see vignette("g-monte-carlo-engine", package = "ambre").)

A worked example with the numbers

Let us pull the actual numbers out. run_qmra_initial_situation() and run_qmra_supplementary_process() run this exact chain internally and returns only plots, so to reach the underlying table we reproduce its steps and stop at get_risk_total():

scenario <- create_scenario(
  system.file("input_1culture_2pop.xlsx", package = "ambre")
)
scenario <- inflow_concentration(scenario, pathogenName = "Campylobacter jejuni")
scenario <- scenario |> mutate(volume = map(config, ~ simulate_exposure(config = .x)))
scenario <- initial_dose_calculation(scenario)
scenario <- update_treatment_scheme(scenario, initial_situation = TRUE)
scenario <- scenario |> mutate(log_reduction = map(config, ~ simulate_treatment(.x)))
scenario <- final_dose_calculation(scenario)
scenario <- infection_probability_calculation(scenario)
scenario <- illness_probability_calculation(scenario)
scenario <- dalys_calculation(scenario)
scenario <- get_risk_total(scenario)

Unnest the risk_total list-column and you have one row per Monte-Carlo run:

rt <- bind_rows(scenario$risk_total)
nrow(rt)         # 1000 runs x 2 scenario rows
#> [1] 2000

Now read the annual DALY distribution against the target. The median, the upper tail, and – most usefully for a decision – the fraction of runs that breach 1e-6:

quantile(rt$dalys_sum, c(0.05, 0.5, 0.95))
#>           5%          50%          95% 
#> 2.877638e-12 6.169565e-12 1.230318e-11
mean(rt$dalys_sum > 1e-6)     # share of Monte-Carlo runs above the WHO target
#> [1] 0

A median comfortably below 1e-6 with only a small fraction of runs above it is a very different message from a median that straddles the line: the first says “safe with margin”, the second “safe on average but not robustly”. Reporting the exceed fraction makes that distinction explicit.

Reading the DALY plot

The same information, visually, is what plot_dalys() shows – and what run_qmra_initial_situation$dalys run_qmra_supplementary_proocess$dalys return:

library(dplyr)
scenario_example <- create_scenario(filepath = system.file("input_1culture_2pop.xlsx", package = "ambre"))
regulation_reduction <- config_ambre$regulation$regulation_value |> filter(Country == "France") |>
                          select(-c(Concentration, Country, RegulationID))
regulation_concentration <- config_ambre$regulation$regulation_value |> filter(Country == "France") |>
                        select(-c(Country, RegulationID, Reduction))

plots <- plot_comparison_qmra_initial_vs_supplementary_processes(
  scenario = scenario_example,
  pathogen = c("Campylobacter jejuni"),
  regulationLog = regulation_reduction,
  regulationConcentration = regulation_concentration
)
plots$dalys
#> $`Campylobacter jejuni`

Each box is the distribution of dalys_sum for one crop x population, on a log10 y-axis. The red line is the 1e-6 target: a box sitting entirely below it meets the goal; a box straddling or above it does not.

Concluding

Turn the reading into an action:

  • Median and 95th percentile below 1e-6 -> the scenario meets the target; document the margin.
  • The line runs through the box -> not robust. You need to cut the risk.

Two levers do that, each with its own vignette: